Election Results Update and Analysis, including the Nevada Senate race being called for Cortez Masto (D)

Photo by Evan Coren

As a reader of Snapshot, you were in the know that the US House races were closer than they were being characterized in most media coverage and that Republican control of the US House was not a forgone conclusion.

For easy reference, our analysis and background on the US House races:

• Alaska through Iowa-2

• Iowa-3 through New York-3

• New York-4 through Oregon-4

• Oregon-5 through Virginia-2

• Virginia-5 through Wisconsin-3

Please feel free to share our articles.

Below we will look at the results so far in the following races:

• US House

• US Senate

• Governors

• State Secretaries of State

• State Legislatures

Top line:

• The US is currently a deeply divided country. It is also relatively evenly divided. Its future for the moment will hinge on how a large number of close elections break.

  • This can change and political environments can shift very quickly (just look how much the country moved from 2008 when Obama was first elected President to 2010 when the “Tea Party” Republicans swept into control of Congress).

  • Democracy and its future is in our hands.

• Status of the closest US House races (also included below are the results of races that were close in the last update and have now been called):

  • Note: Every election California counts ballots very slowly. This is because most people there vote by mail and have until election day to postmark their ballots. It may take a couple weeks to get the final count in the California races.

  • AK-AL: Mary Peltola (D) leads with 101,441 votes (47.3% of the vote) over Sarah Palin (R) with 57,035 votes (26.6% of the vote), Nick Begich (R) with 51,927 votes (24.3% of the vote), and Chris Bye (L) with 3,716 votes (1.7% of the vote) with 80.1% of the vote counted

    • Alaska uses ranked choice voting, if no candidate reaches 50% in the first round.

    • In the special election earlier this year where Peltola (D) was first elected she won by getting the second choices of Begich (R) voters after he was eliminated.

  • AZ-1: Jevin Hodge (D) leads with 163,440 votes over David Schweikert (R) with 151,529 votes with 81.67% of the vote counted - a margin of 2,541 votes

  • AZ-2: Eli Crane (R) leads with 159,273 votes over Tom O'Halleran (D) with 133,853 votes with 90.47% of the vote counted - a margin of 25,420 votes

    • This race has now been called for Crane (R).

    • O'Halleran (D) was an incumbent.

    • This is a Republican pick-up.

  • AZ-6: Juan Ciscomani (R) leads with 155,311 votes over Kirsten Engel (D) with 153,929 votes with 82.95% of the vote counted - a margin of 1,382 votes

  • CA-3: Kevin Kiley (R) leads with 89,150 votes over Kermit Jones (D) with 79,188 votes with 52.5% of the vote counted - a margin of 9,962 votes

    • Most of the remaining vote to be counted is in Sacramento County, Placer County, and Yuba County

      • The portions of CA-3 that is in these counties is currently going Republican, but as we have seen elsewhere Republican voters and Democratic voters have different preferences on when they vote and as a result we can see big shift on which way a county votes as different batches of votes are counted.

  • CA-9: Josh Harder (D) leads with 44,513 votes over Tom Patti (R) with 34,595 votes with 47.04% of the vote counted - a margin of 9,918 votes

    • Most of the remaining vote to be counted is in San Joaquin County (Stockton, Lodi, Tracy, Manteca), which is where most of the residents of this district live and where Harder (D) is currently winning 57.1% to 42.9%.

  • CA-13: John Duarte (R) leads with 39,697 votes over Adam Gray (D) with 39,613 votes with 61.12% of the vote counted - a margin of 84 votes

    • There is slightly more votes left to be counted in the portions of this district that Gray (D) is winning (Merced County, Stanislaus County, San Joaquin County) than Duarte (R) (Fresno County, Madera County).

  • CA-22: David Valadao (R) leads with 29,677 votes over Rudy Salas (D) with 26,799 votes with 53.35% of the vote counted - a margin of 2,878 votes

    • Most of the remaining vote to be counted is in the portions of this district that Salas (D) is winning (Kern County) than Valadao (R) (Tulare County, Kings County).

    • This was one of the ten US House race where the most money was spent by the candidates, parties, and outside groups between July 1, 2022 and October 31, 2022.